Friday, November 9, 2007

Mole Appeared On Nipple?#

not forget from the old FuW spending

From time to look back and I read the old FuW spending by another, or the marked locations. Here is a selection:

Who liquid, can be later when the markets have stabilized, seize opportunities. On the buy list will be issued by companies, are the least good to have presented very good figures, but were recently also detected by Baissesog. ... These titles, it is kept in mind.
11:08:07, Dear Investor

Wahrnehmng the investor has finally reduced to narrow tunnel vision, naturally increases the risk that unexpected events, and they are unfounded in fact, cause a violent reaction.

The hot and fast money leave the stock market has largely left, and has flowed instead into a vehicle for financing acquisitions and PE-HF. ... Also it is seen that the exchanges are not pumped full of speculative money. Otherwise, the downward pressure would be considerably greater.

corrections act that is often almost as a catalyst for subsequent strong price advances.
08:08:07, S 15

The 2008 presidential election could well be the catalyst for the dollar.
11:08:07, Dear Investor, S 13

Except for the U.S. housing market, prices have reached their low point, probably goes by another nine months .
Hendrik Leber, Value Investor, 4:08:07, S 39

Patience is a bitter plant, but the fruit is sweet.
Chinese proverb

Not the loss of money causes poverty, but the fear vor dem Verlust
Bodo Schäfer, dt. Geldberater

Privatanleger bleiben der Börse nach wie vor weitgehend fern... Aktien sind nicht teuer. Der S&P-500 weist für 2007 ein KGV con 16.3 auf, das KGV des DAX beträgt weniger als 15.
21.07.07 (DJIA schloss über 14'000), S 2

Die Fondsverwalter beurteilen die Wachstumsaussichten für Wirtschaft und Unternehmen so zuversichtlich wie seit über einem Jahr nicht mehr.
21.07.07 (DJIA schloss über 14'000), S 11

Eine Krise ist ein produktiver Zustand. Man muss ihr nur den Beigeschmack der Katastrophe nehmen.
Max Frisch

All crises were salutary self-cleaning processes ... Stay out of political action threatened, possibly similar hardships as in August 1998 in the wake of the LTCM collapse and the Asian crisis. At that time, the S & P 500 in a month 15% - all other indices significantly more. After that he did indeed to March 2000 by 62% ... If any a blow, it would be wrong to take it as an occasion to be defensive. If history is a guide to right conduct, must be preferred to a possible rate shock the same cyclical sectors. That evolves from today's basic constitution of the U.S. stock market sustained bear market, is highly unlikely.
Alfons Cortés, 25.07.2007, S 31

to be continued ....

Friday, October 26, 2007

Black And Ivory Themed Wedding Centerpieces

emotional discussions

Analysts argue whether there is an interest rate cut in the U.S. or not. This dispute is run very controversial, the battle lines seem hard. The emotional these discussions take place, are usually less secure both sides.

I'm not different, I just do not know. I can not currently assess Ben Bernanke. That was when Alan Greenspan, very different.

I also see these high fundamental disagreement between key data, which in recent days also have led to clampdowns Tumbling markets and led to the apparently bullish mood, which meant that was acquired in spite of these warning signs of any such decrease. This fits my view do not coincide.

Pay attention to the charts
In such a situation I am relying on the charts. Fundamental factors need to do is often too long to take hold.

is important to recognize that a lot of charts are still extremely important decisions.
  • The S & P near the all-time high.
  • The NASDAQ100 at the upper limit of the old trend.
  • Euro / dollar: on the outbreak of the long sideways movement, that is the old highs.
  • Dax is also just below its all-time high.

This shows how important will be the next Fed rate decision for the markets. Will most likely occur in the course of the next Fed meeting fall in any charts on the decisions. Since I do not know if the Fed cuts or not and how the market reacts to it, nothing else can, than wait for the technical chart signals and the Fed meeting.

Author: Jochen Steffens

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Turkish Cotton Vs Cotton

lecture Alfons Cortés

Last Monday I was - as announced - at the presentation by Alfons Cortés (AC) in Küsnacht / ZH. The event was organized by the FuW propenvoll and can be seen as successful. AC presented its processes, how to lay the right shares to the depot and brought many examples. An actual trader tip did not exist.

As shown repeatedly in his column, he uses mainly the Bollinger bands and the relative strength index for comparison. For AC, the S & P 500 of the index that is to beat.



his principles: his
1) invests only in primary uptrend in stocks.
2) trends will be made until further notice from the NYSE. (Replacement by Shanghai possible, but not now)

selection process of elimination:
3) Only values, sector and country indices are stronger than the S & P500 to be taken into the portfolio.
4) You will only invest in securities and markets that are liquid and legally secure. (Austria is illiquid, Russia uncertain)
5) shares, not less than the index of countries (performing sector index), kicked out.

6) All positions are equally weighted

is the end, a small number übrigt stocks in which to invest. Each item is weighted at 2%. The markets tend to be weak and the relative strength is removed, the cash-share increases automatically. Alternatively, instead of cash and the S & P500 Yet. They would then have at least the best index in the depot.


The Bull Market
The bull market goes through three phases:
a) accumulation
b) the rational environment
c) the irrational environment

indicator of the phases
a) high daily volatility, lack of trend (Trader market), high sensitivity news, extrapolating the past into the future (everything is from the stream!), skepticism vs. trend.
asked> visionaries, which detect new trends and buy stocks. Intermediate: Technical analysis as a basis (no rotten eggs analyzed), fundamental analysis as a selection criterion

b) the shape of Courses following the course of the profit growth (almost all promises profit)
> STAY THERE! NEVER FOLD, because you sure missed out after a small decline the next upturn. Often enough, buying the index of passive investment vehicles (ETF).

c) repressed problems come to the surface divergence to the price increase, dissent on optimal central bank policy because ambiguity sold over inflation, recession, very good runaway values are (wrongly), increased cash portion, diverging sectors
> Now you have to again buy those shares, which have pushed the bull market and have now been sold, for here lurks the big win. Caution: propensity for exaggeration in the assessment. Important: NO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS, purely technical analysis! The valuation seems high only to the first moment. The fruits of the changes found in Phase 1 (Vision) is only now ripe for glory.

Examples:
a) 2002/2003
b) 2003-2007
c) since March 2007, 1998


According to AC are we at the beginning of Phase III. His tips (selection):
+ + NASDAQ 100, energy stocks, raw materials, IT, Telecom (the benefits of new technologies is always underestimated and is rarely assessed correctly by the analysts), Daimler, NESN,
+ DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, KOSPI
- CAC40, Nikkei 225, SMI / SMIM, Financials, Health Care


Finally:
- decreases the relative strength of the index, sell, regardless of the cost price.
- In any bad sectors there is a pearl.


Conclusion:
I compare his ideas with our comments in the forum, things fit together very well. To position themselves now in the + + ideas can be very lucrative. Check our depots and we throw out the rotten eggs!

Friday, October 19, 2007

Red Spots On Dogs Tongue

exchanges Blog Forum

The stock market blog forum is - almost as an extract - for a few days for freely accessible open in read mode.

Have fun!

The days of Open house were on 23.10.2007/18: finished 46th

greetings economist

makes something out of it, but maketh guet ...

Friday, October 5, 2007

Marlin 36g Lever Action

dates Switzerland

DATES SWITZERLAND by the end of December (Pressekonf., income statements, etc. SNB)

Zurich (AWP) - The following are the principal economic and financial events of 08.10.2007 - 31.12.2007:

 08.10. Givaudan SA: Sales 9 mths 
Uster Technologies AG: MK to IPO
CH / Seco: Unemployment figures September
CH / BFS: Preliminary Results 2007 Labour Force Survey

09.10. SNB: Federal Bond Issue - Announcement
present study Plaut Economics / BAK: Theme innovations
SNB Jean-Pierre Roth speech 'Nine years experience with the €'

10.10. SNB: Federal Bond Issue - Result

11.10. No Entry

12.10. CH / BFS: accommodation statistics August 2007
innovation in the pharmaceutical industry - Prix Galien 2007

15.10. No Entry

16.10. Roche Holding AG: Q3 sales
Micronas Semiconductor Holding AG: Earnings Q3
Sulzer: Order Intake 9 mths
CH / BFS: Retail sales, August

17.10. BioXell SpA: R & D Day 2007

18.10. Nestlé SA: MK AG sales 9 mths
Novartis Q3 profit
Syngenta AG: Result 9 mths
Synthes Inc: Earnings 9 mths
Actelion Ltd.: Results 9 mths
Inficon Holding AG Q3 earnings
Logitech International SA Q2 earnings
CH / FCA: Foreign Trade September
CH / FHS: watch exports September
Julius Baer: MK 'etc. view of the global financial markets' to
BAK Basel Economics forecast annual meeting
MK VSKB (Switzerland Cantonal Association.)
CH / CS: ZEW Indicator October

19.10. No Entry

20.10. Lenzerheide Bergbahnen AG: GV

22.10. Austria Micro Systems AG: Q3 result
Conzzeta Holding: autumn meeting for analysts and media
Kuehne + Nagel International AG: Result 9 mths
Sulzer AG: Capital Market Day

23.10. Lonza Group AG: Business Update Q3
Bellevue Group AG: Results for Q3
Hiestand Holding AG: Q3 sales
Kaba Holding AG: GV
Mikron Holding AG: Turnover 9 mths
OC Oerlikon Corporation AG: Results for 9 mths
SEZ Holding AG: Earnings Q3

24.10. Zürcher Kantonalbank: press lunch with a new CEO Martin Scholl

25.10. ABB Ltd Q3 results
BB Biotech AG Q3 earnings
BB Medtech AG Q3 earnings
Bucher Industries AG Q3 revenue
Cytos Biotechnology AG: Results for Q3
Schweizerhall Holding AG: Earnings Q3
SNB / Speech Philipp Hildebrand to trade and industry association canton Bern

26.10. Quadrant AG: Results for Q3
Swiss National Bank SNB result 9 mths
Siegfried Holding AG: Turnover 9 mths
Swissquote Group Holding SA: Results 9M
CH / BFS: Producer and Import Price Index September

29.10. No Entry

30.10. Nobel Biocare Holding AG Q3 earnings
UBS AG: Results for Q3
Crealogix Holding AG: GV
Feintool International Holding: Sales 2006/07
CH / Seco: Forecasts for Swiss Tourism (prov)
CH / UBS Consumption Indicator September
IIR annual congress real estate market in Switzerland

31.10. TDC Switzerland AG (formerly Diax / Sunrise): Q3 earnings
Temenos Group AG Q3 earnings
CH / KOF: Business surveys in October

01.11. Credit Suisse Group Q3 profit
Panalpina World Transport (Holding) AG: Results for 9 mths
CH / PMI October
SNB / Speech Thomas Jordan 'La politique monétaire dans un climat d'incertitude accrue
'

02.11. Adecco SA: Q3 earnings
Phoenix Mecano AG Q3 earnings
Schaffner Holding AG: Sales and order intake 2006/07
Straumann Holding AG: result 9 Mte/Q3
CH / BFS: national index of consumer prices in October

06.11. Baloise Holding: Investors Day
Ciba Specialty Chemicals Holding AG: Earnings Q3
Swiss Re: Q3 earnings
Barry Callebaut AG: BMK 2006/07
Eichhof Holding AG: Earnings 2006/07
Geberit AG Q3 earnings
Lem Holding SA: Results H1 2007/08
Luzerner Kantonalbank: Q3 earnings
Pargesa Holding SA: Q3 earnings
Schulthess Group AG: Results for Q3
17th Finance Forum (including 7.11).

07.11. Clariant AG Q3 earnings
Holcim Ltd Q3 results
Swisscom AG Q3 earnings
CreInvest AG: EGM on share buyback etc.
CH / KOF: Surveys of October

08.11. Compagnie Financière Tradition: 9 mths sales
Ypsomed Holding AG: MK H1 2007/08
CH / Seco: Unemployment figures October

09.11. Also Holding AG Q3 earnings
Sika AG Q3 earnings
Swiss Metal: 9 mths results
CH / Seco: October consumer sentiment

12.11. Oridion Systems Ltd Q3 results

13.11. Banque Cantonale Vaudoise: result 9 mths
Huber + Suhner AG: Sales / Orders 9 mths
Kuoni Reisen Holding AG: Results for 9 mths
Sonova Holding AG: Results for H1 (30.9.)
Tornos Holding AG: Earnings Q3
Unilabs SA: Q1 Results
SNB: Federal Bond Issue - Announcement

14.11. Burckhardt Compression Holding Ltd H1 results
Speedel Holding AG: Earnings Q3
SNB: Federal Bond Issue - Result

15.11. Zurich Financial Services (ZFS): Q3 earnings
Komax Holding AG: Media, Analysts and Investors
CH / CS: ZEW indicator November

16.11. Compagnie Financiere Richemont AG: Results for H1
Carlo Gavazzi Holding AG: Earnings H1
StarragHeckert Holding AG: Earnings Q3

20.11. CH / FCA: Foreign trade in October
CH / FHS: watch exports in October

21.11. Swiss Equity Real Estate Day

22.11. PSP Swiss Property AG Q3 earnings
SHL Telemedicine Ltd..
Q3 earnings Züblin Immobilien Holding AG: Earnings H1
CH / BFS: Employment Barometer Q3

27.11. Fine Tool International Holding: BMK 2006/07
New Venturetec AG: GV
CH / UBS Consumption Indicator October

28.11. Speech SNB Jean-Pierre Roth 'Politique monétaire et stabilité the prix: expériences avec la stratégie actuelle
'
CH / KOF: economic barometer November

29.11. Barry Callebaut AG: GV
Unilabs SA: GV

30.11. Dufry AG: Results for Q3
Ascom Holding AG: Media & Investor Day
CH / BFS: national index of consumer prices in November
CH / Seco: Q3 GDP

03.12. CH / PMI November

04.12. Swiss Life Holding: Investors' Day 2007
Eichhof Holding AG: BMK 2006/07

05.12. Bobst Group SA: Media + Analyst Day

06.12. Esmertec AG Technology Day
Schaffner Holding AG: Results for 2006/07
CH / Seco: Unemployment figures November

07.12. CH / BEC: Business Economists' Consensus
11.12. Swiss Re Investors' Day 2007
Centralschweizerische Kraftwerke: BMK 2006/07
SNB: Eidgenössische Anleihe - Ankündigung

12.12. Elektrizitäts-Gesellschaft Laufenburg AG: BMK 2006/07
CH/CS: ZEW-Indikator Dezember
SNB: Eidgenössische Anleihe - Ergebnis

13.12. SNB: Geldpolitische Lagebeurteilung mit MK

20.12. CH/EZV: Aussenhandel November
CH/FHS: Uhrenexporte November

28.12. CH/UBS-Konsumindikator November
CH/KOF: Konjunkturbarometer Dezember

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Breast Feeding Man In Women

!

Die Stimmcouverts für die kommenden Wahlen sind in den Haushalten und es ist jeder aufgerufen, von seinem Wahlrecht Gebrauch zu machen. Meine Familie hat bereits brieflich abgestimmt...

Grüsse Oekonom

macht was draus, aber machets guet...


Saturday, September 8, 2007

Depression And The Implanon

patience is one of the most important virtues

Gedanken von Jochen Steffens:

Ich sehe im Moment keine wirkliche Alternative zum Aktienmarkt. Zudem sind im nächsten Jahr US-Präsidentschaftswahlen. Nach dem Präsidentschaftszyklus zu urteilen, sollte auch das ein gutes Jahr für die Börsen werden. Das wissen auch viele andere Anleger, gerade in den USA. Diese beiden Punkte werden meines Erachtens die Märkte weiter antreiben, oder zumindest nach unten absichern, selbst wenn sich die Wirtschaft abschwächen sollte.

Das große „Nur!“

Nur, es gibt zwei klitzekleine Probleme, die mich dabei umtreiben:

  1. Kommt es vorher noch zu einem weiteren starken Kursrückgang oder sogar einem Crash? (sprich einem Kursrückgang von 10-20 % innerhalb kurzer Zeit)?
  2. Kann es sein, dass die Kurse vorher bis zum Jahresende also bis Ende November eher seitwärts laufen und somit „langsam“ eine schwächere Wirtschaft einpreisen?

Und das kann ich im Moment nicht beurteilen, weil mir eine wesentliche Information NICHT zur Verfügung steht: Die Information, wie groß die Gefahren der Kreditmarktkrise „wirklich“ sind. Ein Problem, mit dem sich viele Analysten, selbst Banken herumschlagen. Und genau diese Unsicherheit macht mich im Moment sehr, sehr vorsichtig. Ich mag es gar nicht, wenn ich nicht beurteilen kann, was gespielt wird. Ich habe gelernt, in Phasen, in denen ich in wesentliche kursbestimmende Faktoren keinen Einblick habe, einfach meine Finger ruhig zu halten . Geduld ist vielleicht eine der wichtigsten Tugenden, die einen erfolgreichen Trader von einem erfolglosen unterscheidet. Geduld und die Fähigkeit, zu wissen und ganz besonders auch „zuzugeben“, wenn man gerade unsicher ist , oder nicht weiß, was gespielt wird.

Es kann sein, dass das Thema Kreditmarktkrise dramatisch aufgeputscht ist und sich schnell in den bekannt nebulösen Rauch der Börsennachrichten auflöst. Ebenso kann es sein, dass die Folgen doch die Märkte noch weiter beschäftigen und die wirklich schlechten Nachrichten erst kommen. Wenn einige so tun, als wüssten sie schon jetzt genau, was los sei, lassen Sie sich nicht davon beeindrucken. Es ist immer einfach etwas zu behaupten. Man hat dann eine 50:50 Chance, richtig zu liegen. Mut zur Ehrlichkeit ist hier gefragt.

Also bleiben nur die Charts, die hoffentlich auch dieses Mal rechtzeitig ankündigen oder zumindest zu erkennen geben, wohin die Reise gehen wird. Und also sitze ich hier, vor meinen Monitoren und warte auf Zeichen...

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Reconsideration Letter Sample For Schools

impact of the subprime crisis - is not it? The

von Axel Retz:

Über Jahre hinweg haben wahre Heerscharen von Volkswirten, Analysten und Kommentatoren darauf verwiesen, wie segensreich die Preisentwicklung am US-Häusermarkt für die Konjunktur sei.

Diese Aussage war richtig. Kurz gefasst: Die Aufwärtsspirale der Wertsteigerungen der Immobilien konnten von den Hauseignern be mortgaged and diverted into consumption. And with their (now ruptured) system of lending too thinly trying to banks, this supposed economic perpetual motion as long as possible to keep going.

No. That is not what put me into wonder. Human error, wrong beliefs and behavior are nothing Fahl, should wonder about.

What really brings to the shaking of the head is this: The same economists, analysts and commentators who preached before us like a mantra, how positive the permanent house price increases in the labor market, economic and consumption are, let us now know without any blush that it was for the economy, private consumption and the stock market completely irrelevant if the housing boom is ending .

And even more amazing is that there are obviously tons of investors who can recognize this contradiction and hold dear the thought of the "fat years".

This "fat years" are over but with high probability. The data released yesterday by the U.S. housing market speak for themselves: The existing home sales fell from as high as 1991 not more, while the price drop in property was stronger than ever since 1987. The credit crunch spills now spreading to the credit card business.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Normal Values Lupus Anticoagulant

Verluderung the banking industry

The blog post " The system eats itself " I referred to the species of the mercenary Geldvermehrer. The following message fits well with this and confirmed my opinion:

sanctions against ex-chief of the ZKB
Hans Voegeli is already scheduled for 2010 as 2008 and not properly retired. Voegeli had to take the hat end of May. He had said, the great customer Sulzer would not be "touched", they would stay out of a takeover attack against the Winterthur Group, which is then not yet happened. Furthermore, in a private account Voegeli der Bank Vontobel Sulzer-Optionen gehandelt und sich bereichert. Für die EBK war Vögelis Handeln «gravierend».

Vögeli ist ein Mann mit zwei Gesichtern, hat er doch vor einigen Jahren einen Kundenbrief verschickt, in dem er die Verluderung der ethischen Standards in der Bankenbranche scharf geisselte und mit dem Finger auf die Geldgier anderer Banker zeigte. Vögeli war, wie jetzt bekannt wird, privat einer der grössten Aktienhändler auf der Bank. Bisher kam Vögeli seitens der ZKB ungeschoren davon. Das hat sich nun geändert. Man hat abklären lassen, wie man Vögelis Fehlverhalten, das der Staatsbank einen grossen Reputationsschaden zugefügt hat, sanktionieren kann. Neither employees, customers or owners (the Zurich cantonal council) would understand if Voegeli could get the most from the company for cash.

Source: NZZ Online

Saludo economist

makes something out of it, but maketh guet ...

Thursday, August 9, 2007

How Does A Dome Camera Work

Final Sell-Off?

Yesterday "räbelte" he is not big in the U.S. stock markets, does not it? I simply set times that (still) no new lows were reached and have reached the badly affected-banks (JPM, C, GS, BSC) NO new lows. Perhaps that will come today!

also for the SMI-time pre-market "only" a drop to 8680 on what would not be a new low. Whether the DAX can keep the sideways trend to just below the 7400, we see today.

it remains in spite of Asia in this picture, it would be another good buying opportunity, would have to buy one. The SMI would even form an SKS-Formation ... Fingers crossed!

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

How To Unlock Dvd Player Sony Dvp-sr200p

overestimation

"Call the Fed to the Rescue!" - "The government must do something!" - "As estimated by the President of the economy?"

I can already hear any more. Since some market participants hope that their home-made sub-Slime problems of the Fed, the government or be dissolved by God. One wonders from the Minister and hoped that he (he of all people!) Know how bad the crisis in the sub-Slime, although he can not even estimate what it really is.

If you already do not know what works and what does not, then keep on the best NOT to the opinions a few less people in positions politically colored, but the facts!

fits in with this wonderful today dilbert.com:

Substitute For Kala Namak

Where the big boys play

fascinating when I look at the color on my paper. While the SMI-selection invariably the yellow-green camp is showing almost half of the Nebenwerte noch rote Tendenzen auf. Schöner könnte man die Theorie nicht vor seinen Augen bestätigt bekommen: Es sind die grossen Werte, welche nun mehr Dampf zeigen, während die kleinen sich noch etwas ausruhen müssen. Es gibt sicher ein paar Ausnahmen (KABN, STMN, SUN), aber davon sollte man sich nicht täuschen lassen.

Die Strategie kann deshalb nur heissen: Konzentration auf die Grossen - auch in den USA. Ob YPSN oder VALN wirklich gross auftrumpfen können, wie es sich momentan andeutet, ist zu vage. Ich spiele lieber mit den grossen Jungs, als das volatile Geplänkel beim Kindergarten mitzumachen.

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Route Find By Foot Uk

The Fed has spoken ...

... zur Inflation, zur Wirtschaft, zum Wachstum, aber die SM-Thematik there is apparently no notable topic. Actually a good thing. Sure, there are failures in the mortgage business, but who is willing money to dubious contemporaries for 2nd and 3 - to give ranking mortgage, must not be surprised if these loans at some point can not be repaid. Where would we be if our National Bank as our leasing business through monetary policy measures take effect under the arms necessary because the rates for expensive leased luxury vehicles may not be paid, because the gasoline was more expensive and you anyway on the last waves of subsistence denies.

I think the decision makers know to differentiate and the markets will deal with the solution-oriented situation. After all, the Fed has not yet fired the powder today ...

greetings economist

makes something out of it, but maketh guet ...

Caterpillar Old Modell

in tonight

Emotionslos think I considered that it is best for the market when there are no abprupten FED maneuvers. Some reassuring words will probably help more. That does not even need a concrete statement at the time of a possible rate cut to be, but simply to note that the cleanup is largely on track by the market itself (which it should be). This should done, in my opinion first, and just in case the Fed can intervene then still, otherwise the powder may be fired soon.

greetings economist

makes something out of it, but maketh guet ...

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Boobsgroping In Bus & Train On Daily Moon

Subprime Mortages: what it is all about

In many forums, written about the SM-crisis and debated. Do we know about, being what it is? I have something on the Internet researched and subsequently found (from different sources) on the subject.

subprime Mortages "stands for the market with low-prime mortgages.

The American mortgage market falls into three segments, namely the premium market, the (still) intact, the sub-prime, mortgages to households with poor credit awards, and a gray market between them with innovative products, such as the so-called Alt-A mortgages for which borrowers can qualify with decent, but not quite first-class credit rating. Subprime loans are U.S. known for years, originally in advance in California and Florida. They did, however, each consisting of only a few percent of the total market. This has changed with developments in the real estate boom of recent years, last year was a fifth of all new mortgages assigned to the sub-prime sector. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association currently around 7.5 million first mortgages to the subprime class are outstanding, representing a 14% share of the total stock of first mortgages. Another 8% to 10% for Alt-A mortgages and similar instruments.

In light of the mid-2005 slump in the housing market returned to the lending in the subprime sector last year turned out to be particularly aggressive. Some market participants have already relaxed their lax standards to keep the business alive. This takes revenge now. Last year, at the end of the first quarter of 2007, house prices in the U.S. are not increased, but dropped on average by 1.4%. Many important areas are affected by falling property prices. It follows that for years, so popular refinancings are no longer possible, and many homeowners can afford the monthly payments not to increase sharply as a result of interest rate adjustments in part. About two-thirds of subprime mortgages, or 9% of the total stock are called "adjustable rate mortgages" (ARM). They are often offered at cheap rates ("teaser rates" or "honeymoon rates"), after a certain time, the interest rates adjusted upward, some massive. The foreclosures, ARM mortgages currently stand at about 12%.

subprime mortgages, once they have been "booted up" throwing naturally higher returns ab als Premium-Produkte. Dies erklärt auch das rege Interesse der Investmentbanken, diese Kredite zu bündeln und als «Collateralized debt obligations» (CDO) an Investoren weiterzuverkaufen. Dieser Markt hat in den letzten Jahren einen ungeahnten Aufschwung genommen. Der enorme Appetit von Hedge-Funds und anderen Investoren auf solche Papiere hat mit dazu beigetragen, dass die Neuvergabe von riskanten Hypotheken zusätzlich durch eine Lockerung der Underwriting-Standards forciert wurde. Die ursprünglichen Kreditgeber behalten normalerweise nur einen kleinen Teil der Hypotheken selbst und geben den Grossteil weiter, meist an die Banken und Investmenthäuser, von denen sie finanziert werden. Es gibt allerdings Rückkaufklauseln, wenn die Bonds not bring the desired performance. This has led some subprime institutions in big trouble.

Who is to blame for the misery? Some, including many members of Congress want to introduce new laws to throw the mortgage industry and aggressive action against frivolous in lending and the authorities lack of supervision. Others criticize the naivety and ignorance of the consumers and the greed of Wall Street houses and hedge funds, the fat commissions earned or could not get enough of the mortgage bonds in the throat. come under fire are the rating agencies, the unrealistic ratings for the bonds and benefited at all until very recently responded to the crisis. The Mortgage Bankers Association is against stricter regulations or new laws, as this allows the less wealthy population of the dream of a home would be excluded. Also, the Federal Reserve Board is restrained with new rules and would prefer to rely on the "corrective market forces." Agreement among most observers is that the crisis is still ongoing for a while and get the number of non-performing mortgages will, especially if home prices should fall further. The rating agency Moody's estimates the potential for the risky mortgages to $ 1.4 trillion.

has the meltdown of two hedge funds of Bear Stearns is shown: Das systemische Risiko liegt nicht in faulen Hypotheken, sondern in der Spekulation mit solchen über CDOs bei gleichzeitigem Einsatz von hohen Hebeln. Bis zu 20 Milliarden USD hat Bear Stearns mit seinen zwei Hedgefonds vernichtet. Entsprechend hat Standard & Poor’s zahlreiche CDOs abgewertet. Das Problem: Wenn in einem grossen aber durch externe Schocks relativ leicht auszuhebelnden Markt die Liquidität, d.h. die Nachfrage, plötzlich zum Erliegen kommt und alle durch dieselbe schmale Tür den Raum verlassen wollen, kann es zum Super-Gau kommen. Eine Kreditklemme in Folge gestiegener Risikoaufschläge mit negativen Auswirkungen auf die Aktien- und Rohstoffmärkte ist aus derzeitiger unwahrscheinlich, da das weltweite Finanzsystem widerstandsfähiger is as yet to LTCM times. In addition, the fundamental situation is better today than the "savings-and-loans" crisis between 1987 and 1992.

is therefore difficult to assess how long the crisis in the U.S. housing market and whether they could bring the world economy in serious trouble. Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has recently "occurs, it could still need some time to recovery," only to be carried away. However, as Bernanke gun at foot - even if the dollar bulls do not want to hear - to the case of a worsening crisis, turning up the money supply and to protect the U.S. economy. This is the ace up its sleeve in the global economy.

Discussion zum Thema im Forum zum Börsenblog ...

Grüsse Oekonom

macht was draus, aber machets guet...

Saturday, July 28, 2007

What To Pu On Walls In Bathroom

wishes, ideas and statistics

Vielleicht möchten mich einige für die kommende Aussage am liebsten teeren und federn, aber ich würde mir wünschen, dass die Korrektur noch ein wenig anhält - und die Chancen stehen v.a. in den USA gut dafür. Wieso? Die Krake "subprime" hat viele Arme und reicht in die verschiedensten Ecken der Welt. Niemand kann abschätzen, wer alles davon betroffen ist. Dazu kommen die in unzähligen strukturierten Produkten verteilten Risiken. Warren Buffet sieht ja schon länger in the derivatives, a WMD - a "weapon of mass destruction".

The same elements can also be tuned positive, because the risks are spread so just now to so many people. The implications for the individual would have to be small. But who knows, how they are nested, and what leverage is behind it?

As long as the financial institutions do not dare with concrete data on its risks to the public, the sword of Damocles hanging over the industry. These fears must first be eliminated or replaced by good solid framework. We trust the roast is not easy. Therefore, it is for me particularly have still not come into the United States.


Why I wish to correct a little longer to do with the high indicator levels in the medium / longer term charts. The engines run so hot that a slowdown would do well - and bring us back a lot of interesting entry points would be.

fact that the DJIA has just a little air down shows the following chart [w]. You've got to the movements of Korrkturen on. Before it could go up again, the indicators had significantly come down - which was often quite quickly. The course even kissed each - even if only briefly - the bottom edge of the Bollinger band. And now you look at the starting position today ...!



All those who were in the past few weeks on vacation and will come back (or yet to come back) will be displayed on their account statement and then on the charts. "Christ, what happened?" As usual, overreacting and sold the same on Monday ...

Of course it's not a rule, but if the situation continues to screw up in these spheres, the correction turn out more and more. Then I catch bigger is better now than later, a knock-out blow.


The SMI is the situation of advanced (see Chart [w]). Squandered your money but not too early (I can with me on my bug list also available). Everywhere you hear attempts at appeasement, you have to behave rationally and such things. It takes a little more pessimism ...!


Anyone who is not so sure about the "bottom-fishing" may consider the difference between the MACD histogram. If the distance is again small, can be greater commitment again considered (say it: "Signal M"). Then you probably missed a few percentage points (which one can "play" yet, just reduced use), but the risk is minimized. Here is an analysis of this signal. So much to begin with: It is rarely the first signal the right ...!


Meine Auswertung basierend NUR auf dem daily MACD:

Sept 03: Divergenzen bei den MACD Histogrammwerten, sonst recht überraschend
Signal M am 1. Okt zu -42, Tiefstkurs einen Tag zuvor. Kurs am unteren BB, MACD bei -23

März 04: Divergenz seit Feb 04, Zusammenbruch im März 04.
- Signal M1 am 17. März zu -34, Kurs am unteren BB, MACD bei -25 (Fehlsignal)
- Signal M2 am 19. März zu -32, Kurs am unteren BB, MACD bei -41 (Fehlsignal)
- Signal M3 am 23. März zu -38, Kurs am unteren BB, MACD bei -67 (danach Börsenschwäche bis Nov 04)

Aug 05: (Kurzkorrektur)
Signal M am 30. August zu -33, Tiefstkurs einen Tag zuvor, Kurs unterhalb lower BB, MACD at -6

May / June 06: Long divergence since the beginning of the year.
signal M1 23 May to -64, lower price on the BB, MACD at -122! (Error signal)
signal M2 15 June to -31, lowest price two days earlier, lower price on the BB, MACD at -152

Nov / Dec 06: divergence since October.
signal M1 29 November to -42, lower price on the BB, MACD at -9 (missing signal)
signal M2 on 4 To -45 in December, lower price on BB, MACD at -43

Feb / March 07: Weak development, almost
divergence signal M1 on 6 March to -78, lower price on the BB, MACD at -95 (error signal)
signal M2 15 March to -31, lower price in BB, MACD at -107

today: Moderate Price performance since April
signal M1 on 11 June to -35, lower price on the BB, MACD at -26 (error signal)
signal M2 28 June to -27, in the lower course BB, MACD at -61 (error signal)
signal on M3? News to -52, the lower rate under BB, MACD at -108

knowledge:
1) We are already on the third "signal M". So far, there has never been more than 2 false signals. For a longer period of weakness ...
2) The MACD was already at a level where it can go up again
3) There was no rebound, that would have been without the value of the histogram is not at least -30, which is now given.
4) It often takes several attempts before the share price to bounce back kam. Hier ist das gegeben.
5) Der MACD muss richtig tief im Minus sein. Hier ebenfalls gegeben.

Fazit: Für den SMI sieht es gut aus in nächster Zeit - v.a. im Vergleich zum DJIA...!

Und noch ein Tipp: Spielt einmal die letzten Korrekturen nochmals nach. Lässt den Chart sowei zurück fahren, bis die Korrektur kurz bevor steht und geht dann Schritt für Schritt einen Tag bzw. eine Woche vorwärts. Überlegt euch, wann ihr wieder einsteigen würdet und überprüft das Verhalten. Na, Treffer?

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Period Late Increase In Cervical Mucus

scenario by Alfons Cortés

Quelle: FuW, 25.07.07, Seite 31:

Ich weiss nicht, ob demnächst ein Unfall eintritt oder nicht [...]. If any a blow, it would be wrong to take it as an occasion to be defensive. If history is a guide to right conduct, must now be preferred, and a possible rate shock to the same cyclical sectors. That evolves from today's basic constitution of the U.S. stock market sustained bear market, is - again, referring to the stock market history - highly unlikely.

His short-term scenario is certainly not super-bullish ...

Monday, July 2, 2007

Holly Willoughby Flower Birthday Cake

Ouch - tough luck

bad luck with the new iPhone ...



greetings economist

makes something out of it, but maketh guet ...

Friday, June 29, 2007

Vegeta I Bulma Hentei Chomikuj

The Case of the trend ...

"The trend is your friend". This is one of the largest stockbrokers rules. In practice, this often looks like that many investors buy high rates - and then get off when jet-black pessimism and the courses are in the basement. It says it common sense that it actually the other way around should make. Quite as simple as that with the trend that is not.

At this point it is necessary to dispel an old stereotype:
  • anti-cyclical approach to the stock market does not mean that you are always compares the actually prevailing trend. That this can not be particularly successful is obvious.

  • The art is rather to identify new trends as early as possible and then be positioned accordingly. Also active counter-cyclical investors know that is that they will only make profits if its shares are discovered by the great mass of investors. It is clear that one is more successful in the stock market, the sooner one can trace such developments. This is of course only when one makes his own thoughts and avoid precisely the market segments that are currently in demand in particular.

I think It therefore prefer a different business rule, which says, lies

My profit in the cheap shopping .

greetings economist

makes something out of it, but maketh guet ...

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

What A Chest Infection Feels Like?

U.S. consumer confidence - twice a closer look!

Axel Retz

Take a couple of monthly recurring Economic data and publish it. Before their appearance they can make a little chic, tweak ie. They then presented an astonished audience. Let's say the published value is 110, while the whole world expects a value on the previous month Jöhe levels of only 100 had.

That's great. And the stock market like that and reward it immediately with rising prices.

A month later they reported then by a renewed growth, say 5 percentage points. Again rub the investor's hands. What is often overlooked that the data were corrected from the previous month into silence at 95, stopped the increase of 5 percentage points, thus continuing a de facto identifies two months.

These unsightly nature of the data presentation (positive new data, downward revision of the previous) are being presented with the investors in recent years in the U.S. so many times that it no longer the hoax note . Take Apart from their favorite pastime, the "shopping". For here, the average citizen realizes now very well that the official inflation something is wrong,.

In reaction (also) then the last published figures reported to the U.S. consumer confidence more than analysts to expect: The index turned in June to 103.90, according to (revised) 108.50 in May

This figure primarily was to the Dax hailed, yesterday the recovery attempt, because declining consumer confidence = consumer spending = economic slowdown... So at least the quick calculation of many market observers.

When looking at the chart a closer anschauen, wird Ihnen jedoch zweierlei auffallen:

  • Seit Anfang 2006 bewegt sich der Index des Verbrauchervertrauens per Saldo seitwärts. Und 2006 notierte er gleich viermal tiefer als jetzt – ohne dass es zu der genannten „Kettenreaktion" kam. Und:
  • Das letzte „Superhoch" des Verbrauchervertrauens fiel genau zusammen mit dem letzten Allzeithoch des Dow Jones Anfang 2000. Und das letzte markante Tief des Verbrauchervertrauens ist ebenso deckungsgleich mit dem Baissetief der Aktienmärkte im März 2003.

Das heißt: Vieles spricht dafür, dass das Verbrauchervertrauen allererst eine Funktion der Aktienmarktkurse ist. Und dass es für die Konjunktur- und Interest rate expectations is totally unnecessary to put each new month number of significant gold on the balance.

tomorrow evening "data" that are really important, namely the statement of the Federal Reserve to its future policy. And unlike the data on consumer confidence I will also be sitting once harnessed to the monitor.

How Long To Use Cocoa Butter

Boersen forum

Oeki , congratulations to the new stock market forum .. it is very good. Bravo!

Friday, June 22, 2007

Send Mail Via Outlook Express Spam

Markteinschätzung

saw a week ago it still good, and then came Monday ... What moves the stock market right now?
  • First there are fears of inflation . In these subjects include family of course the interest and a little further out, the interest rates of longer-term bonds .
    If inflation threat comes from somewhere, then probably from the energy sector, otherwise the central bankers have the situation well in hand. Therefore, the interest that they could increase a little is usually expected.
    In the longer-term interest rates I see on the resolution of the 'Conundrums'. The returns were just too deep and this will now change - which also indicates an expansion of the economy. So nothing bad.
    missing is the capacity utilization in the company. Yes, that is good, especially when speaking in individual companies of "volume management". The global competition is however, prevent the rise to high margins by increasing prices.
    Conclusion: neutral. Then there must
  • Sometimes problems with some hedge funds , the money will Verlochung and from the parent companies roused in fresh capital. It hurts indeed, some banks, but is in a typical market adjustment.
    Conclusion: neutral.
  • I often hear that we are already at the end of the market cycle had arrived and it could only go downhill. We are already talking about a weakening economy . The Ifo index - measures the mood, not the facts - has now somewhat weaker tendency than expected. So what? With 107, he still shows an expansion in the economy, only the tempo (!) Seems (!) To weaken somewhat. Is that bad? No! Expect these waves have to. Some of this temporary weakness as a 'mid-cycle slow down' known ...
    Conclusion: positive
  • Yes, we are currently in a period in which there are few numbers of companies. Please create the Economic figures more attention. Each only as small change or deviation is immediately interpreted as a danger signal. Experts can provide mutual war of words. I say most of the figures shows a typical variation in the further recovery. Let you so not too much guided by the United States (ver) ...
    Conclusion: neutral
  • The half-year figures are only one week away, not the markets over-valued. A surprise potential is provided, for the moment is half empty for many of the glass.
    Conclusion: positive
  • And then there are the commodities, including oil . Here we are heading for an uncomfortable time. Hurricane damage, which facilities can the driving season, which eats up fuel, and finally could Querrelen geopolitical (terrorist fear in Germany as an image, strikes in Oelländern, Iran and Hamas) have the oil prices continue to rise. Only: If das neu? Haben wir nicht den Preisanstieg von 20 auf 70 Dollar schon gut überstanden? Hier müsste man sich wieder einmal über die Höhe des Oelpreises unterhalten, welcher den Chinesen weh tun würde...
    Fazit: negativ.
Ich komme zum Schluss: Wir sind weder voll bullish noch bearish, sondern irgendwo zwischendrin. Die Chancen für einen steigenden Markt sehe ich wieder ab Juli. Bis dahin wird es weiter volatil bleiben. Cash und ein paar wenige Einzelwerte mit klarer Absicherung sind vorzuziehen. Ab Juli stehen die Chancen wieder besser.


Bin gespannt auf die Diskussion im Forum...

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Play Vídeos Follando

Zum Tag

Die Richter des Establishments haben gesprochen. Der totale Zusammenbruch der einst so stolzen SWISSAIR hat nur wirtschaftliche Folgen für jene gehabt, die auf der falschen Seite oder in der falschen Hierarchie gestanden haben. Die Sache ist abgehandelt. Die Volksseele durfte ein paar Tage kochen und – wie könnte es anders sein - schon wendet sich die Öffentlichkeit anderen „events“ zu.

Wir leben in einer sehr kurzlebigen Zeit – the show must go on. Was gestern noch mit eisernem Besen vom Podest gefegt wurde, kann schon morgen wieder, in wundervollem Glanz, zuoberst stehen. Unsere Gesellschaft verfügt nicht mehr über die Vitalität, solche Blitzwendungen um 180 Grad kritisch zu hinterfragen.

Die Zürcher Kantonalbank war vorgestern noch ein Thema, gestern waren es ZKB the greedy traders who were allowed to pass through with the blessing of the State Bank enormous killing. Likewise, ex-CEO Markus. - Today it employs some minds, why should exhale as of 06/28/2007 CASH successful his life in favor of DAILY CASH. Useless questions, because the establishment does not look in the cards and who does it, nevertheless, be disciplined, whatever it hot in the final analysis, too.

The rampant arrogance of today's society is very aptly described by Mulla Nasrudin in the "Life Sciences", N. Hoxha, Munich 1993, described
"Mulla Nasrudin used sometimes people in his boat to take trips with. One day could be a famous linguist of him cross the River. On board asked the scholars whether the trip would probably stormy who-the. "I can not never tell." "Good man, what a primitive language. Have you never learned grammar? "" No, "said Mulla. With such in-te of the great river came on strong wind, and the small boat filled with water. Nasrudin bent down to his passenger: "Have you ever learned to swim?" "No," said the scholar. "Then you have wasted your life useless. We are sinking. "

The Climate Conference in Rostock was a well-staged unlawful assembly palavernder Paviane und eine Superplattform für die professionellen Chaoten, die es verstanden hatten, Tausende von Sicherheitskräften zu blockieren, die anderswo weit besser hätten eingesetzt werden können.

Macht es viel Sinn zu fragen, wie und welche „Sommerlöcher“ die Massenmedien für uns bereit halten? „Fetter Spatz erstickt an einem zu grossen Wurm“ - Vogelschützer sind gesucht, so etwas darf nicht passieren, Verbote müssen her...

Quelle: wirtschaftsinfo

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

What Should I Wear To Tickle

Gewinn mit Langsamkeit

Leute, es wird Sommer!
Kolumne 08.06.2007, Bilanz

__ Wenn wir in der heutigen, nervösen Welt really want to succeed, we should clean our as in earlier times every morning, the teeth, then look in the mirror and say to ourselves: Today I go out and look so little as possible on a screen. I care about, for example, not a bit about how are my shares.

the necessary room we have. Sure, if we are stockbroker by profession, we have the nervous and downs of the courses follow compulsorily. All the others have not. And: All others should not do so. Because it absolutely makes no sense if we want to control every moment of our screens, whether the rates shoot straight up or down. People on the screen in each Moment die Zuckungen der Aktienkurse verfolgen, sehen mit 49,9 Prozent Wahrscheinlichkeit ein Abwärts und mit 50,1 Prozent Wahrscheinlichkeit ein Aufwärts ­ so haben das Statistiker über die Jahre ermittelt. Das sind Zufälligkeiten, die uns nicht weiter beschäftigen sollten. Schauen wir nicht hin, verpassen wir überhaupt nichts. Uns «normalen» Menschen genügt die Gewissheit, dass die Chance auf einen Gewinn minimal höher ist als das Verlustrisiko ­ sofern wir nur einen genügend langen Atem haben.

Wir sollten uns übrigens auch davor hüten, nur jede Stunde einmal online den Kurs abzufragen. Sonst sähen wir die Kurse mit 51,3 Prozent Wahrscheinlichkeit steigen und mit 48,7 Prozent Likely fall. We were so disappointed in 48.7 percent of the cases, which objectively is a considerable potential for frustration. For optimistic people, as we want it to be, it is advisable not even the next morning nachzublättern in the paper, as have our shares yesterday developed: This rhythm would still be too high, but we were sobered by 46 percent probability.

Who wants to learn the art of slowness, exercises in it, only once a month to watch on stock prices. Then it comes to us already a bit better, but we are still frustrated with 33 percent probability, what most of us still would be too much of what is tolerable. The next highest stage of serenity, we reach when we dare, only once a quarter, the courses to ask. Then, the risk declines to be disappointed, to 23 percent. Let us be only once a year, we have reached 7 percent. And so on. At some point, the statistical risk seeking even zero. We simply can not get too flustered.

We must therefore not even convert to Zen Buddhism. It is sufficient if we trust a Swiss private banker who, like Konrad Hummler, Wegelin & Co. advised of his customers sometimes, "eyes!"

This limited wisdom sich keineswegs auf den Aktienmarkt. Heute regnet es, morgen scheint die Sonne; und falls morgen die Sonne tatsächlich scheint, steigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit ein klein wenig, dass sie übermorgen immer noch scheint. Ein warmer Winter kündet noch keine Klimakatastrophe an; zwei warme Winter hintereinander zum Glück auch nicht. Jede gute Geschäftsfrau weiss, dass sie sich ihre Launen besser nicht vom zufälligen Tagesumsatz versalzen oder versüssen lässt. Auch TV-Moderatoren tun gut daran, wenn sie nicht stur auf die Quote des Vorabends starren. Zu oft hat ein singuläres Ereignis schon zu falschen Schlüssen verleitet, in jeder Branche, in jeder Beziehung. Selbst die prognostizierte Klimakatastrophe würde erst dann eintreten, when we drove werkt people as before. But we do not, otherwise the world would be lost many times. Until now we still have new technologies, intelligent machines, more sustainable methods invented. From this insight we hopefully draw new courage.

Let us begin again from scratch if we want to have in today's nervous world success, we take one before the morning after brushing your teeth: Today I go out, sit down on a lawn would still and watch the grass grow to. And lo and behold: There is growing.

Source: markusschneider.ch