What A Chest Infection Feels Like?

U.S. consumer confidence - twice a closer look!

Axel Retz

Take a couple of monthly recurring Economic data and publish it. Before their appearance they can make a little chic, tweak ie. They then presented an astonished audience. Let's say the published value is 110, while the whole world expects a value on the previous month Jöhe levels of only 100 had.

That's great. And the stock market like that and reward it immediately with rising prices.

A month later they reported then by a renewed growth, say 5 percentage points. Again rub the investor's hands. What is often overlooked that the data were corrected from the previous month into silence at 95, stopped the increase of 5 percentage points, thus continuing a de facto identifies two months.

These unsightly nature of the data presentation (positive new data, downward revision of the previous) are being presented with the investors in recent years in the U.S. so many times that it no longer the hoax note . Take Apart from their favorite pastime, the "shopping". For here, the average citizen realizes now very well that the official inflation something is wrong,.

In reaction (also) then the last published figures reported to the U.S. consumer confidence more than analysts to expect: The index turned in June to 103.90, according to (revised) 108.50 in May

This figure primarily was to the Dax hailed, yesterday the recovery attempt, because declining consumer confidence = consumer spending = economic slowdown... So at least the quick calculation of many market observers.

When looking at the chart a closer anschauen, wird Ihnen jedoch zweierlei auffallen:

• Seit Anfang 2006 bewegt sich der Index des Verbrauchervertrauens per Saldo seitwärts. Und 2006 notierte er gleich viermal tiefer als jetzt – ohne dass es zu der genannten „Kettenreaktion" kam. Und:
• Das letzte „Superhoch" des Verbrauchervertrauens fiel genau zusammen mit dem letzten Allzeithoch des Dow Jones Anfang 2000. Und das letzte markante Tief des Verbrauchervertrauens ist ebenso deckungsgleich mit dem Baissetief der Aktienmärkte im März 2003.

Das heißt: Vieles spricht dafür, dass das Verbrauchervertrauen allererst eine Funktion der Aktienmarktkurse ist. Und dass es für die Konjunktur- und Interest rate expectations is totally unnecessary to put each new month number of significant gold on the balance.

tomorrow evening "data" that are really important, namely the statement of the Federal Reserve to its future policy. And unlike the data on consumer confidence I will also be sitting once harnessed to the monitor.