Vielleicht möchten mich einige für die kommende Aussage am liebsten teeren und federn, aber ich würde mir wünschen, dass die Korrektur noch ein wenig anhält - und die Chancen stehen v.a. in den USA gut dafür. Wieso? Die Krake "subprime" hat viele Arme und reicht in die verschiedensten Ecken der Welt. Niemand kann abschätzen, wer alles davon betroffen ist. Dazu kommen die in unzähligen strukturierten Produkten verteilten Risiken. Warren Buffet sieht ja schon länger in the derivatives, a WMD - a "weapon of mass destruction".
The same elements can also be tuned positive, because the risks are spread so just now to so many people. The implications for the individual would have to be small. But who knows, how they are nested, and what leverage is behind it?
As long as the financial institutions do not dare with concrete data on its risks to the public, the sword of Damocles hanging over the industry. These fears must first be eliminated or replaced by good solid framework. We trust the roast is not easy. Therefore, it is for me particularly have still not come into the United States.
Why I wish to correct a little longer to do with the high indicator levels in the medium / longer term charts. The engines run so hot that a slowdown would do well - and bring us back a lot of interesting entry points would be.
fact that the DJIA has just a little air down shows the following chart [w]. You've got to the movements of Korrkturen on. Before it could go up again, the indicators had significantly come down - which was often quite quickly. The course even kissed each - even if only briefly - the bottom edge of the Bollinger band. And now you look at the starting position today ...!
All those who were in the past few weeks on vacation and will come back (or yet to come back) will be displayed on their account statement and then on the charts. "Christ, what happened?" As usual, overreacting and sold the same on Monday ...
Of course it's not a rule, but if the situation continues to screw up in these spheres, the correction turn out more and more. Then I catch bigger is better now than later, a knock-out blow.
The SMI is the situation of advanced (see Chart [w]). Squandered your money but not too early (I can with me on my bug list also available). Everywhere you hear attempts at appeasement, you have to behave rationally and such things. It takes a little more pessimism ...!
Anyone who is not so sure about the "bottom-fishing" may consider the difference between the MACD histogram. If the distance is again small, can be greater commitment again considered (say it: "Signal M"). Then you probably missed a few percentage points (which one can "play" yet, just reduced use), but the risk is minimized. Here is an analysis of this signal. So much to begin with: It is rarely the first signal the right ...!
Meine Auswertung basierend NUR auf dem daily MACD:
Sept 03: Divergenzen bei den MACD Histogrammwerten, sonst recht überraschend
Signal M am 1. Okt zu -42, Tiefstkurs einen Tag zuvor. Kurs am unteren BB, MACD bei -23
März 04: Divergenz seit Feb 04, Zusammenbruch im März 04.
- Signal M1 am 17. März zu -34, Kurs am unteren BB, MACD bei -25 (Fehlsignal)
- Signal M2 am 19. März zu -32, Kurs am unteren BB, MACD bei -41 (Fehlsignal)
- Signal M3 am 23. März zu -38, Kurs am unteren BB, MACD bei -67 (danach Börsenschwäche bis Nov 04)
Aug 05: (Kurzkorrektur)
Signal M am 30. August zu -33, Tiefstkurs einen Tag zuvor, Kurs unterhalb lower BB, MACD at -6
May / June 06: Long divergence since the beginning of the year.
signal M1 23 May to -64, lower price on the BB, MACD at -122! (Error signal)
signal M2 15 June to -31, lowest price two days earlier, lower price on the BB, MACD at -152
Nov / Dec 06: divergence since October.
signal M1 29 November to -42, lower price on the BB, MACD at -9 (missing signal)
signal M2 on 4 To -45 in December, lower price on BB, MACD at -43
Feb / March 07: Weak development, almost
divergence signal M1 on 6 March to -78, lower price on the BB, MACD at -95 (error signal)
signal M2 15 March to -31, lower price in BB, MACD at -107
today: Moderate Price performance since April
signal M1 on 11 June to -35, lower price on the BB, MACD at -26 (error signal)
signal M2 28 June to -27, in the lower course BB, MACD at -61 (error signal)
signal on M3? News to -52, the lower rate under BB, MACD at -108
knowledge:
1) We are already on the third "signal M". So far, there has never been more than 2 false signals. For a longer period of weakness ...
2) The MACD was already at a level where it can go up again
3) There was no rebound, that would have been without the value of the histogram is not at least -30, which is now given.
4) It often takes several attempts before the share price to bounce back kam. Hier ist das gegeben.
5) Der MACD muss richtig tief im Minus sein. Hier ebenfalls gegeben.
Fazit: Für den SMI sieht es gut aus in nächster Zeit - v.a. im Vergleich zum DJIA...!
Und noch ein Tipp: Spielt einmal die letzten Korrekturen nochmals nach. Lässt den Chart sowei zurück fahren, bis die Korrektur kurz bevor steht und geht dann Schritt für Schritt einen Tag bzw. eine Woche vorwärts. Überlegt euch, wann ihr wieder einsteigen würdet und überprüft das Verhalten. Na, Treffer?
