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Markteinschätzung

saw a week ago it still good, and then came Monday ... What moves the stock market right now?

• First there are fears of inflation . In these subjects include family of course the interest and a little further out, the interest rates of longer-term bonds .
  If inflation threat comes from somewhere, then probably from the energy sector, otherwise the central bankers have the situation well in hand. Therefore, the interest that they could increase a little is usually expected.
  In the longer-term interest rates I see on the resolution of the 'Conundrums'. The returns were just too deep and this will now change - which also indicates an expansion of the economy. So nothing bad.
  missing is the capacity utilization in the company. Yes, that is good, especially when speaking in individual companies of "volume management". The global competition is however, prevent the rise to high margins by increasing prices.
  Conclusion: neutral. Then there must
  
• Sometimes problems with some hedge funds , the money will Verlochung and from the parent companies roused in fresh capital. It hurts indeed, some banks, but is in a typical market adjustment.
  Conclusion: neutral.
  
• I often hear that we are already at the end of the market cycle had arrived and it could only go downhill. We are already talking about a weakening economy . The Ifo index - measures the mood, not the facts - has now somewhat weaker tendency than expected. So what? With 107, he still shows an expansion in the economy, only the tempo (!) Seems (!) To weaken somewhat. Is that bad? No! Expect these waves have to. Some of this temporary weakness as a 'mid-cycle slow down' known ...
  Conclusion: positive
  
• Yes, we are currently in a period in which there are few numbers of companies. Please create the Economic figures more attention. Each only as small change or deviation is immediately interpreted as a danger signal. Experts can provide mutual war of words. I say most of the figures shows a typical variation in the further recovery. Let you so not too much guided by the United States (ver) ...
  Conclusion: neutral
  
• The half-year figures are only one week away, not the markets over-valued. A surprise potential is provided, for the moment is half empty for many of the glass.
  Conclusion: positive
  
• And then there are the commodities, including oil . Here we are heading for an uncomfortable time. Hurricane damage, which facilities can the driving season, which eats up fuel, and finally could Querrelen geopolitical (terrorist fear in Germany as an image, strikes in Oelländern, Iran and Hamas) have the oil prices continue to rise. Only: If das neu? Haben wir nicht den Preisanstieg von 20 auf 70 Dollar schon gut überstanden? Hier müsste man sich wieder einmal über die Höhe des Oelpreises unterhalten, welcher den Chinesen weh tun würde...
  Fazit: negativ.
  

Ich komme zum Schluss: Wir sind weder voll bullish noch bearish, sondern irgendwo zwischendrin. Die Chancen für einen steigenden Markt sehe ich wieder ab Juli. Bis dahin wird es weiter volatil bleiben. Cash und ein paar wenige Einzelwerte mit klarer Absicherung sind vorzuziehen. Ab Juli stehen die Chancen wieder besser.


Bin gespannt auf die Diskussion im Forum...