von Axel Retz:
Über Jahre hinweg haben wahre Heerscharen von Volkswirten, Analysten und Kommentatoren darauf verwiesen, wie segensreich die Preisentwicklung am US-Häusermarkt für die Konjunktur sei.
Diese Aussage war richtig. Kurz gefasst: Die Aufwärtsspirale der Wertsteigerungen der Immobilien konnten von den Hauseignern be mortgaged and diverted into consumption. And with their (now ruptured) system of lending too thinly trying to banks, this supposed economic perpetual motion as long as possible to keep going.
No. That is not what put me into wonder. Human error, wrong beliefs and behavior are nothing Fahl, should wonder about.
What really brings to the shaking of the head is this: The same economists, analysts and commentators who preached before us like a mantra, how positive the permanent house price increases in the labor market, economic and consumption are, let us now know without any blush that it was for the economy, private consumption and the stock market completely irrelevant if the housing boom is ending .
And even more amazing is that there are obviously tons of investors who can recognize this contradiction and hold dear the thought of the "fat years".
This "fat years" are over but with high probability. The data released yesterday by the U.S. housing market speak for themselves: The existing home sales fell from as high as 1991 not more, while the price drop in property was stronger than ever since 1987. The credit crunch spills now spreading to the credit card business.
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