Last Monday I was - as announced - at the presentation by Alfons Cortés (AC) in Küsnacht / ZH. The event was organized by the FuW propenvoll and can be seen as successful. AC presented its processes, how to lay the right shares to the depot and brought many examples. An actual trader tip did not exist.
As shown repeatedly in his column, he uses mainly the Bollinger bands and the relative strength index for comparison. For AC, the S & P 500 of the index that is to beat.
his principles: his
1) invests only in primary uptrend in stocks.
2) trends will be made until further notice from the NYSE. (Replacement by Shanghai possible, but not now)
selection process of elimination:
3) Only values, sector and country indices are stronger than the S & P500 to be taken into the portfolio.
4) You will only invest in securities and markets that are liquid and legally secure. (Austria is illiquid, Russia uncertain)
5) shares, not less than the index of countries (performing sector index), kicked out.
6) All positions are equally weighted
is the end, a small number übrigt stocks in which to invest. Each item is weighted at 2%. The markets tend to be weak and the relative strength is removed, the cash-share increases automatically. Alternatively, instead of cash and the S & P500 Yet. They would then have at least the best index in the depot.
The Bull Market
The bull market goes through three phases:
a) accumulation
b) the rational environment
c) the irrational environment
indicator of the phases
a) high daily volatility, lack of trend (Trader market), high sensitivity news, extrapolating the past into the future (everything is from the stream!), skepticism vs. trend.
asked> visionaries, which detect new trends and buy stocks. Intermediate: Technical analysis as a basis (no rotten eggs analyzed), fundamental analysis as a selection criterion
b) the shape of Courses following the course of the profit growth (almost all promises profit)
> STAY THERE! NEVER FOLD, because you sure missed out after a small decline the next upturn. Often enough, buying the index of passive investment vehicles (ETF).
c) repressed problems come to the surface divergence to the price increase, dissent on optimal central bank policy because ambiguity sold over inflation, recession, very good runaway values are (wrongly), increased cash portion, diverging sectors
> Now you have to again buy those shares, which have pushed the bull market and have now been sold, for here lurks the big win. Caution: propensity for exaggeration in the assessment. Important: NO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS, purely technical analysis! The valuation seems high only to the first moment. The fruits of the changes found in Phase 1 (Vision) is only now ripe for glory.
Examples:
a) 2002/2003
b) 2003-2007
c) since March 2007, 1998
According to AC are we at the beginning of Phase III. His tips (selection):
+ + NASDAQ 100, energy stocks, raw materials, IT, Telecom (the benefits of new technologies is always underestimated and is rarely assessed correctly by the analysts), Daimler, NESN,
+ DAX, Euro Stoxx 50, KOSPI
- CAC40, Nikkei 225, SMI / SMIM, Financials, Health Care
Finally:
- decreases the relative strength of the index, sell, regardless of the cost price.
- In any bad sectors there is a pearl.
Conclusion:
I compare his ideas with our comments in the forum, things fit together very well. To position themselves now in the + + ideas can be very lucrative. Check our depots and we throw out the rotten eggs!
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