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The Case of the trend ...

"The trend is your friend". This is one of the largest stockbrokers rules. In practice, this often looks like that many investors buy high rates - and then get off when jet-black pessimism and the courses are in the basement. It says it common sense that it actually the other way around should make. Quite as simple as that with the trend that is not.

At this point it is necessary to dispel an old stereotype:

• anti-cyclical approach to the stock market does not mean that you are always compares the actually prevailing trend. That this can not be particularly successful is obvious.
  


• The art is rather to identify new trends as early as possible and then be positioned accordingly. Also active counter-cyclical investors know that is that they will only make profits if its shares are discovered by the great mass of investors. It is clear that one is more successful in the stock market, the sooner one can trace such developments. This is of course only when one makes his own thoughts and avoid precisely the market segments that are currently in demand in particular.
  

I think It therefore prefer a different business rule, which says, lies

My profit in the cheap shopping .

greetings economist

makes something out of it, but maketh guet ...

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U.S. consumer confidence - twice a closer look!

Axel Retz

Take a couple of monthly recurring Economic data and publish it. Before their appearance they can make a little chic, tweak ie. They then presented an astonished audience. Let's say the published value is 110, while the whole world expects a value on the previous month Jöhe levels of only 100 had.

That's great. And the stock market like that and reward it immediately with rising prices.

A month later they reported then by a renewed growth, say 5 percentage points. Again rub the investor's hands. What is often overlooked that the data were corrected from the previous month into silence at 95, stopped the increase of 5 percentage points, thus continuing a de facto identifies two months.

These unsightly nature of the data presentation (positive new data, downward revision of the previous) are being presented with the investors in recent years in the U.S. so many times that it no longer the hoax note . Take Apart from their favorite pastime, the "shopping". For here, the average citizen realizes now very well that the official inflation something is wrong,.

In reaction (also) then the last published figures reported to the U.S. consumer confidence more than analysts to expect: The index turned in June to 103.90, according to (revised) 108.50 in May

This figure primarily was to the Dax hailed, yesterday the recovery attempt, because declining consumer confidence = consumer spending = economic slowdown... So at least the quick calculation of many market observers.

When looking at the chart a closer anschauen, wird Ihnen jedoch zweierlei auffallen:

• Seit Anfang 2006 bewegt sich der Index des Verbrauchervertrauens per Saldo seitwärts. Und 2006 notierte er gleich viermal tiefer als jetzt – ohne dass es zu der genannten „Kettenreaktion" kam. Und:
• Das letzte „Superhoch" des Verbrauchervertrauens fiel genau zusammen mit dem letzten Allzeithoch des Dow Jones Anfang 2000. Und das letzte markante Tief des Verbrauchervertrauens ist ebenso deckungsgleich mit dem Baissetief der Aktienmärkte im März 2003.

Das heißt: Vieles spricht dafür, dass das Verbrauchervertrauen allererst eine Funktion der Aktienmarktkurse ist. Und dass es für die Konjunktur- und Interest rate expectations is totally unnecessary to put each new month number of significant gold on the balance.

tomorrow evening "data" that are really important, namely the statement of the Federal Reserve to its future policy. And unlike the data on consumer confidence I will also be sitting once harnessed to the monitor.

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Boersen forum

Oeki , congratulations to the new stock market forum .. it is very good. Bravo!

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Markteinschätzung

saw a week ago it still good, and then came Monday ... What moves the stock market right now?

• First there are fears of inflation . In these subjects include family of course the interest and a little further out, the interest rates of longer-term bonds .
  If inflation threat comes from somewhere, then probably from the energy sector, otherwise the central bankers have the situation well in hand. Therefore, the interest that they could increase a little is usually expected.
  In the longer-term interest rates I see on the resolution of the 'Conundrums'. The returns were just too deep and this will now change - which also indicates an expansion of the economy. So nothing bad.
  missing is the capacity utilization in the company. Yes, that is good, especially when speaking in individual companies of "volume management". The global competition is however, prevent the rise to high margins by increasing prices.
  Conclusion: neutral. Then there must
  
• Sometimes problems with some hedge funds , the money will Verlochung and from the parent companies roused in fresh capital. It hurts indeed, some banks, but is in a typical market adjustment.
  Conclusion: neutral.
  
• I often hear that we are already at the end of the market cycle had arrived and it could only go downhill. We are already talking about a weakening economy . The Ifo index - measures the mood, not the facts - has now somewhat weaker tendency than expected. So what? With 107, he still shows an expansion in the economy, only the tempo (!) Seems (!) To weaken somewhat. Is that bad? No! Expect these waves have to. Some of this temporary weakness as a 'mid-cycle slow down' known ...
  Conclusion: positive
  
• Yes, we are currently in a period in which there are few numbers of companies. Please create the Economic figures more attention. Each only as small change or deviation is immediately interpreted as a danger signal. Experts can provide mutual war of words. I say most of the figures shows a typical variation in the further recovery. Let you so not too much guided by the United States (ver) ...
  Conclusion: neutral
  
• The half-year figures are only one week away, not the markets over-valued. A surprise potential is provided, for the moment is half empty for many of the glass.
  Conclusion: positive
  
• And then there are the commodities, including oil . Here we are heading for an uncomfortable time. Hurricane damage, which facilities can the driving season, which eats up fuel, and finally could Querrelen geopolitical (terrorist fear in Germany as an image, strikes in Oelländern, Iran and Hamas) have the oil prices continue to rise. Only: If das neu? Haben wir nicht den Preisanstieg von 20 auf 70 Dollar schon gut überstanden? Hier müsste man sich wieder einmal über die Höhe des Oelpreises unterhalten, welcher den Chinesen weh tun würde...
  Fazit: negativ.
  

Ich komme zum Schluss: Wir sind weder voll bullish noch bearish, sondern irgendwo zwischendrin. Die Chancen für einen steigenden Markt sehe ich wieder ab Juli. Bis dahin wird es weiter volatil bleiben. Cash und ein paar wenige Einzelwerte mit klarer Absicherung sind vorzuziehen. Ab Juli stehen die Chancen wieder besser.


Bin gespannt auf die Diskussion im Forum...